If you have a run, your opponent plays worse
A broad chest, absolute determination, coolness at the decisive moment - athletes like to explain winning streaks with their own performance. The opponent often unintentionally helps. This is shown by an analysis of over five million tennis and chess games.
First we had no luck, and then we had bad luck on top of that. Professional athletes stammer fatalistic analyses of this kind into the microphones during field interviews after losing games. They probably know that this is only half the truth. That there is more to it when the opponent "scores the big points", "simply goes on a run" or "has the momentum on their side". But they probably don't realise how much the simple fact that the opponent is generally on the rise negatively affects their own performance.
This is suggested by a study by Duke University, which included 117,762 professional tennis matches and more than five million chess games. In one-on-one matches at the board or on the court, the mind plays a major role. And in chess, the physical component of performance is largely absent. Together, this provides a solid database to see what the famous "momentum" on one side does to the other.
Flying high vs. fluttering nerves
The focus is usually on the winners. Athletes who suddenly surpass themselves have long been of interest to scientists. For decades, they have been endeavouring to track down the phenomenon of the "hot hand" in basketball. Why do some athletes suddenly seem to succeed at everything - and can it be a coincidence?
With every successful action, every victory and every rise in the rankings, athletes not only grow in belief in their own abilities. It also does something to their future opponents. Whether at chess or with a racket in hand. When analysing their flood of data, the Duke researchers discovered that professional tennis players often fall short of their potential against players on the rise. This was shown, for example, by the increased number of double faults. Playing against high-flyers with fluttering nerves makes the task much more difficult - even if the starting position is actually open due to the comparable playing strengths.
Hopefully no antidote will be found
The study traces what makes sport so interesting for many of us: that the balance of power is not cemented and sometimes outsiders have the chance to defy the odds. Like Leicester City, who, as 5000-to-1 outsiders in 2016, left the top clubs in the Premier League in their wake and became English champions. At some point, it became clear that they could no longer be stopped. Of course, an army of psychologists has long been working in professional sport to persuade their athletes that their upcoming opponents are as good as unbeatable at the moment. But how?
The authors of the study, who tested their theory on over 1800 online participants, have not found a magic formula. The most promising strategies are to find legitimate reasons to doubt your opponent's strength and to reassure yourself of your own abilities. "Focusing on your own strengths" is another sportsman's phrase. Apparently it's true. All the better that this is apparently easier said than done and that even seasoned professionals can't escape the "momentum". <p
Simple writer and dad of two who likes to be on the move, wading through everyday family life. Juggling several balls, I'll occasionally drop one. It could be a ball, or a remark. Or both.