In light of demographic change, the authors examine the development of crime in the areas of police, justice, and penal enforcement. Based on numerous interviews with experts, they identify the relevant factors that influenced crime trends from 1995 to 2010. In combination with time series data from Bavaria, Brandenburg, Lower Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt, statistical models are developed to explain the crime rates. These models serve as the basis for forecasting registered crime as well as the number of suspects, convictions, and incarcerations up to the year 2020.