Martina Grabau explores how the energy policy relations between the EU and Russia will develop in the future as a result of the Ukraine crisis. She examines the positions of EU member states and the EU Commission before and after the onset of the Ukraine crisis and develops a future scenario for European natural gas foreign policy through a game-theoretical simulation. The author provides a comprehensive picture of the patterns of action and the changes in the policy positions of the actors as a consequence of the Ukraine crisis and discusses factors that facilitate and restrict these transformation processes. Furthermore, she demonstrates the methodological added value of combining formal modeling and policy analysis.