In the weeks leading up to the 2002 federal elections, everything pointed to a change in government. Nevertheless, the red-green coalition government under Gerhard Schröder was narrowly confirmed in office on September 22, 2002. This last-minute swing is interpreted in the context of long-term trends in voter behavior as a result of an increasing individualization of the voting decision. Short-term influencing factors thus gain importance over the long-term shaping forces of the voting decision. Professional campaign management and skillful topic management become important prerequisites for electoral success. Against this general background, the role of the impending war in Iraq, the flood disaster, and the TV debates between Gerhard Schröder and Edmund Stoiber in influencing the voting decision in the 2002 federal elections is highlighted.