Netflix has a problem with second seasons
Netflix has just made a worrying discovery: its biggest series are haemorrhaging viewers after season one. Even the streaming giant is unsure why.
There’s a question on everyone’s lips at Netflix right now – and as yet, nobody’s come up with an answer. Several of the platform’s biggest hits in recent years are losing a surprising number of viewers from one season to the next. So many that, according to Bloomberg, even Netflix’s own analysts are scratching their heads over it. While they’re aware of the problem, they’re unsure why it’s happening right now and on this scale.
Remarkable for a company that usually keeps its cards close to its chest. Traditionally averse to releasing viewership figures, Netflix tends to keep outsiders in the dark about how well its series are actually performing. The fact that an internal assessment is being reported on (the results of which are still pending) demonstrates that this isn’t about one disappointing season. Instead, it’s about a pattern that’s causing concern within the company.
The scale of the problem
The figures that Bloomberg claims to have obtained directly from Netflix provide an initial indication of the extent of the problem. One Piece, one of the biggest hits of 2023, lost over 30 per cent of its audience in season two. For Beef, the figure was over 70 per cent. The Night Agent shed half its audience between seasons one and two, with another 35 per cent dropping off in season three.
Even the new season of Avatar: The Last Airbender, one of the most-watched Netflix productions of 2024, saw viewer numbers plummet more than 60 per cent in its first week compared to the previous season.
These figures refer to the first four weeks post-release. The pattern’s evident across genres and formats, with dramas and comedies equally affected. And there have already been real consequences – The Night Agent will be cancelled after the upcoming season. Meanwhile, other series, such as Running Point and The Four Seasons have been renewed despite losing more than 50 per cent of their audiences.
How will this affect Netflix’s business?
This low retention rate is hitting Netflix at an inopportune time. Its stock has dropped by about 40 per cent over the past 12 months, even hitting a two-year low at the end of June. According to Bloomberg, the total number of hours viewed by all users grew by just under two per cent during the same period – a meagre result for a company that has long defined its success by this very metric.
What’s more, there’s been a noticeable dry spell when it comes to big-hitting series. According to Bloomberg, Netflix had virtually no major hits between February and May 2026. It’s certainly telling that during those four months, the week that recorded the most streaming hours wasn’t attributed to Beef or One Piece – the series intended to be the biggest audience magnets – but to the stand-up special The Roast of Kevin Hart. In other words, a one-off comedy gala outshone the expensive, prestigious in-house productions that Netflix had originally been counting on.
At the same time, Netflix’s failed attempt to acquire Warner Bros. in spring has put the company under strain. Discovery also eroded shareholder confidence: investors viewed the move as an admission that Netflix lacked growth ideas of its own. A suspicion that even its withdrawal from the negotiations couldn’t entirely dispel.
These problems would be manageable on their own, but all three combined? They reinforce each other. Netflix has always justified its high spending on original productions by arguing that building long-term user loyalty would drive growth. But when even these big, expensive flagship series lose half their audience after just one season, that very strategy starts to crumble – and with it, the argument Netflix has been using to keep its investors on board.
Why this is no coincidence
The really interesting observation here isn’t that Netflix is losing viewers – it’s why its system is designed that way. Ryan Broderick, who runs the newsletter Garbage Day, has shed light on a mechanism we’ve known about for some time, but rarely seen described so clearly. Netflix reportedly covers the production costs for its own and third-party productions up front, retaining the international distribution rights in return. Only when a series makes it to its third season do the producers receive a significantly larger payout.
If your business model relies on gaining new subscribers over building a reliable, returning audience, there’s little incentive to invest in creating a long-term fan base. What counts instead is the novelty factor – the big announcements, the virality, the hype surrounding launches. What happens to the series after that is secondary to the core business.
This also explains a trend Netflix audiences have been complaining about for years – shows are often cancelled after just two seasons, before viewers have had a proper chance to get into them. Viewers who are wise to this pattern might be thinking twice about getting emotionally invested in a new series at all – a vicious cycle that’s likely to reinforce post-season-one drop-off rates.
On top of that, there’s a problem of Netflix’s own making. If too much time passes between two seasons, the momentum fizzles out. Beef was released in 2023, with season two coming out three years later. Blue Eyed Samurai, one of the most acclaimed anime series of 2023, is an even more blatant example. Its second season won’t air until 2027 – a whopping four (!) years after season one. By then, fans will have well and truly forgotten that season one buzz.
Mind you, this isn’t just a Netflix problem. Other streaming platforms often leave years-long gaps between seasons too, partly because of production schedules and partly because of external factors such as strikes.
Still, the contrast between this practice and traditional television is striking. Shows like Lost and 24 reliably delivered a new season every year for years on end. Once people got into these shows, they stuck with them because they didn’t have to wait overly long for the next season. This confidence that the story will continue soon is lacking in today’s streaming landscape, likely exacerbating the drop in viewer loyalty between seasons.
What this means for us as viewers
Netflix has previously overcome numerous lulls in programming with surprise hits. The most recent example of this are the screen adaptations of Harlan Coben’s novels, the latest being I Will Find You, which currently ranks among the platform’s most-watched titles. Tellingly, it’s a self-contained miniseries, with no plans for a sequel.
Perhaps this is exactly where the future is headed for Netflix: less long-lasting lore, more self-contained, bite-sized series that have to work exactly once – and then no more. For a company that actually wants to retain its audience, this would be a remarkable admission that its current strategy is no longer working.
I write about technology as if it were cinema, and about films as if they were real life. Between bits and blockbusters, I’m after stories that move people, not just generate clicks. And yes – sometimes I listen to film scores louder than I probably should.
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